The !Now Probable! Chance that Hurricane Milton Hits the Tampa Area
It's been over 150 years since a hurricane has moved west to east on a similar track.
October 8, 2024, Update
According to the National Hurricane Center 11 AM EDT forecast discussion, “Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
October 7, 2024, Update
As stated in the summary “It’s hard to argue with modern hurricane models. Certainly, those forecasts are the ones we should follow for disaster preparation and evacuation.” The National Center is now forecasting Hurricane Milton will strike the Tampa area. Please heed these forecasts and warnings.
Hurricane Milton formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the past few days and is now projected to land in the Tampa Region. It’s rare for hurricanes to travel directly west to east across the Gulf of Mexico, particularly from Texas toward Florida. Most storms move in a more northward trajectory and then curve east due to various weather systems like cold fronts or high-pressure systems.
When hurricanes turn eastward, they often landfall along the Gulf Coast, hitting places like Louisiana, Alabama, or the Florida Panhandle rather than directly impacting areas like Tampa.
Here’s a brief history of the major storms moving west to east.
Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Hurricane Wilma is the largest storm in the past two decades to move west to east and make landfall in the region. It moved across the Gulf of Mexico and turned northeast, making landfall in Southwest Florida, near Marco Island. However, it approached from the south more than the west.
Unnamed Hurricane of 1945
The unnamed Hurricane of 1945 moved in a similar path as Wilma from the Caribbean. The storm turned east, became a hurricane, and made landfall near Tampa as a Category 1 on June 24, 1945.
Figure 7
1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane
Perhaps the most famous hurricane for the region, the Tampa Bay hurricane of 1921 (also known as the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane), was a destructive, deadly major hurricane (Category 3) that made landfall in the Tampa Bay area of Florida in late October 1921. Like most storms that make landfall in the Tampa region, the hurricane came from the Caribbean before turning east.
Unnamed Tropical Storm of 1892
You have to go back 130 years to find a tropical storm or hurricane that formed in the Gulf of Mexico and tracked on the projected path of Hurricane Milton. The tropical storm made landfall near Tampa in late October.
Unnamed Tropical Storm of 1872
While you have to go back to 1892 to find a track that is similar to the projected path of Hurricane Milton, twenty years before the Unnamed Tropical Storm of 1892, another similar storm occurred. The Unnamed Tropical Storm of 1872 crossed the Gulf of Mexico from east to west. It landfilled near Tampa in late October.
Unnamed Hurricane of 1859
The last hurricane to track west to east across the Gulf of Mexico and strike the Tampa region was the Unnamed Hurricane of 1859. The Category 1 hurricane made landfall in early September.
Unnamed Hurricane of 1852
Seven years earlier, another rare Category 1 hurricane tracked west to east on a similar path as projected for Hurricane Milton. The Unnamed Hurricane of 1852 made landfall on October 28 with winds of 80 knots.
The Rare Chance that Hurricane Milton Strikes Tampa
It’s hard to argue with modern hurricane models. Certainly, those forecasts are the ones we should follow for disaster preparation and evacuation. However, a look at more than 150 years of tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico indicates that it is rare for a storm to track west to east across the Gulf of Mexico and strike the Tampa region.
JD Solomon resides in the Carolinas, where he fishes, sails, and coaches baseball. Professionally, JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method©. JD has weathered many storms, both on land and at sea.
