Too Much Hype Over Hurricane Rafael
Rafael is not one of the deadly November storms that strike every 40 years, and it is not an example of climate change.
Hurricane Rafael continued to move west across the Gulf of Mexico this Friday morning. It is the first major hurricane to hit the Gulf in November for almost 40 years. The storm also comes at the end of an active hurricane season that includes Hurricanes Helene and Milton. However, the hype is overdone.
For the Record
Only 11 storms have moved through the Gulf since 1861. Only six of them have made landfalls, and none have made landfall in Texas or Louisiana.
Five Notable November Hurricanes Along U.S. Southeast Coast
- Hurricane Nicole in 2022 — Category 1 at Vero Beach, Florida
- Hurricane Gordon in 1994 — Category 1 and T.S. at 3 landfalls in Florida
- Hurricane Kate in 1985 — Category 2 Mexico Beach, Florida
- 1925 Florida Tropical Storm — Officially a tropical storm, killing 73 people from Florida to Maine
- The Expedition Hurricane of 1861 — Category 1 in Florida and damage along U.S. eastern coast
The Expedition Hurricane
The Expedition Hurricane of 1861, a rare November hurricane, nearly changed the direction of the US Civil War. I wrote about it earlier this fall.
1925 Florida Tropical Storm
The 1925 Florida tropical storm holds the distinction as the deadliest tropical cyclone that did not become a hurricane. The storm made two landfalls, one on the lower Florida Gulf Coast and one in North Carolina.
The storm officially formed on November 27, quickly intensified, hit Cuba, and made its central Florida landfall on December 1. Within hours, the system transitioned into an extratropical cyclone and emerged into the Atlantic Ocean. The system moved onshore once more on December 2 in North Carolina.
The storm was responsible for 73 fatalities. The single worst loss of life took place off the East Coast, where the 30 crewmen of the American S.S. Cotopaxi drowned. Structures previously considered safe from storms due to their location sustained significant damage from storm surges. Property damage amounted to $3 million (1925 dollars), $1 million of which was in Jacksonville, FL.
Hurricane Kate
Hurricane Kate (1985) was one of the most impactful November hurricanes. It made landfall in Florida as a Category 2 hurricane, causing significant damage and leading to 15 fatalities.
Ironically, Rafael is now tied with Hurricane Kate in 1985 as the strongest storm recorded in the Gulf in November. However, modern-day measurement was not available for the storms before the 1960s.
Summary
For the past 200 years, one to two November hurricanes have caused significant damage every 50 years. Rafael is not going to be one of them. And Rafael is not an example of climate change.
JD Solomon resides in the Carolinas, where he fishes, sails, and coaches baseball. Professionally, JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method©. JD has weathered many storms, both on land and at sea.
