Trying to Reason with the 2024 Hurricane Season
The 2024 hurricane season will be studied for many years, and the devastation will impact multiple generations in western North Carolina.
These are some updates to six insights related to hurricanes in the 2024 season. Risk, reliability, vulnerability, resilience, disaster recovery, climate change, and even public-private partnerships are interwoven through information and perspectives. However, more than anything else, they are hopefully relatable and interesting.
As of October 30, 2024, the storms of this season caused at least 372 fatalities and more than $200 billion in damage. Most of the property damage is due to Helene and Milton. Most of the fatalities are due to Beryl and Helene. Sadly, there are approximatley 50 people who are unaccounted for in western North Carolina.
Little Time to Prepare
The 2024 hurricane season started off relatively slow. It was further marked by storms that built to cyclone status seemingly just before landfall. Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 did major damage to North Carolina, surprised many, and yet never achieved named status.
Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Francine, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight made it three in a row.
Here’s Why Atlantic Hurricanes Are Quickly Developing
It normally takes more than two days for a tropical disturbance to jump to a hurricane. Hurricane Helene joined Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Francine, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight in an unusual string of four in a row.
The Slight Chance Becomes Reality
It’s been over 150 years since a hurricane has moved west to east on a similar track. At least, that was the case when the hurricane formed deep in the Gulf near Mexico.
As I developed the article, I looked at the history and concluded there was a “slight” chance of the storm hitting Tampa. Thirty-six hours later and 48 hours before the storm made landfall, the title of the article was quickly changed to probable/
Hurricane Milton ended up closely following the path of Hurricane Charley when Milton bounced off the Yucatan Peninsula.
Climate Change
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis rebuffed those who blame stronger hurricanes on climate change as Florida dealt with the aftermath of Hurricanes Milton and Helene.
On October 10, 2024, DeSantis said, “It is hurricane season. You are going to have tropical weather.”
Good common-sense advice, especially for those trying to make political points less than a week after storm events.
I looked at how the data matters and why the focus should be on disaster recovery.
Historical Hurricanes with Great Impact
Stay vigilant — for the past 200 years, at least one November hurricane has caused significant damage every 50 years.
Hurricane Models and Flooding
A news story tried to blame a public-private partnership agreement on “bad” hurricane forecasts. Similar to climate change, the noise started less than one week after Hurricane Helene responders could assess the damage.
The claim was false on several counts, and the story disappeared. Hurricane models are interesting, and NOAA does a good job with them.
One underappreciated fact is that flooding from extreme rainfall is the deadliest direct cause of tropical cyclone fatalities in the U.S. over the past decade.
Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season
Yes, that’s a song written and recorded by the great Jimmy Buffet. The 2024 hurricane season is memorable across many states and will continue to be studied. The devastation of Hurricane Helene will impact multiple generations in western North Carolina. Please continue to send your support and prayers.
JD Solomon resides in the Carolinas, where he fishes, sails, and coaches baseball. Professionally, JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method©. JD has weathered many storms, both on land and at sea.
