Will Late-Forming Storms Characterize the 2024 Hurricane Season?
Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Francine, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight make three in a row.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season was predicted to be a big one. Thus far, those predictions have been a bust. However, the trend appears to be an unusual amount of late-developing tropical cyclones that quickly dump heavy rains and moderate winds on coastal residents who normally have a longer time to prepare.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
The tropical storm currently affecting the Carolinas, which may become Tropical Storm Helene, was initially a low-pressure system that didn’t immediately classify as a tropical storm. The NHC issued warnings approximately 24 hours before the initial winds made landfall.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) did monitor the system, but it only began to show signs of strengthening as it approached the coast.
Hurricane Francine (2024)
Francine made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane with little warning on September 11, 2024. As it moved inland, Francine quickly weakened to a tropical storm, causing significant flooding and power outages.
Hurricane Francine took approximately two days to make landfall after it became a tropical storm. It was expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday, September 10, 2024, and made landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Hurricane Debby (2024)
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a tropical wave that eventually became Hurricane Debby on July 26, 2024. On August 3, it developed into a tropical depression and quickly intensified into a tropical storm later that day. Debby made landfall in Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on August 5.
Debby did develop relatively quickly, but the NHC monitored it closely throughout its formation and intensification. Hurricane Debby was tracked for about 10 days before it made landfall.
Other Recent Late-Developing Storms
Late developing storms do occur. For example, Hurricane Ian (2022) rapidly intensified and made landfall in South Carolina shortly after crossing Florida. Tropical Storm Mindy (2021) formed and made landfall in Florida within a day.
However, it is unusual to have three late-developing storms in a row in a single. Atlantic basin season.
Stay Vigilant for Late-Breaking Storms
We’re only about halfway through the hurricane season. Stay vigilant for late-breaking storms and, as always, prepare for the big one.
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JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method©. He is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.
